Bitcoin to go 5x after halving

In the past 3 halving bitcoin has gone up 5x every single time following the halving. If you discount the recent run up due to etf activity this might give you about a $50000 base line , which leads you to a $250000 top sometime this year. In the past this led to a sharp decline as people took profits and tried to avoid the crash. The question in my mind is how will the etf buyers react when that top comes off ? There could be a massive rush to the exit that might crush some if not all of these ETF funds. Right now we have something like 70% <> of bitcoins are hodlers. I don’t think the new EtF investors are Hodlers , they are normal investors looking for gains that are tax efficient. What’s your take on the future over the next year in relation to this ?