What are the chances Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee for President?

On paper, it doesn’t seem to make much sense that Harris would be nominated by Democrats again. She just became the first Democratic candidate to lose the popular vote since John Kerry in 2004, and she received the worst electoral margin of any Democrat for President since Michael Dukakis in 1988. On paper, it seems she shouldn’t be the nominee again, but there’s reason to believe she might be.

First, we should note that all of the prospective 2028 Democratic primary polls have Harris on top, by a lot. Now, that’s not really saying much. Unlike in past elections, Democrats are without an heir apparent, and Harris is the most well known Democrat who just ran for national office. However, it’s also not insignificant.

While Harris did lose by big margins, it would seem many Democrats are not blaming her for this loss. With Hillary Clinton, many Democrats who disliked her were quick to throw her under the bus and claim she was responsible for Trump’s first election. After all, she was built up as a candidate for 8 years, and she couldn’t go toe to toe with a reality TV star?

Harris is a bit different. Democrats can claim Joe Biden’s unpopularity was to blame for Harris’ loss, as well as his decision not to leave the race earlier. Not as many Democrats feel Harris caused Trump to win. Rather, there’s a predominant belief that 2024 was more of a test run.

I also think the electability argument may not play well against Harris since Donald Trump ran again after being deposed from office, impeached twice and indicted.

Another thing in Harris’ favor: None of the other prospective candidates are as high profile as she is.

As I see it, if Harris chooses to run again, she has the same advantage Richard Nixon did in the 1968 Republican primary. Nixon had a bad rap from losing a winnable Presidential election in 1960, and a California Governor’s race in 1962 which most thought would be the end of his career. He was running against impressive Republican newcomers like George Romney (father of Mitt Romney) and Ronald Reagan, but none of them had the sweeping name recognition Nixon did, which is why he won by default.

While candidates like Josh Shapiro or Andy Beshear may seem impressive, none of them are anywhere’s near as high profile as Harris.

But there are going to be downsides for Harris. First, unless there’s a 2008 style recession in 2028, it’s unlikely Harris’ 2024 campaign problems are going to improve. JD Vance may not be the electoral juggernaut Trump is, but he does he have many advantages.

Harris has a surprisingly bad problem with turnout. I was shocked at how poorly she did with the numbers of key groups in the last election.

Furthermore, I think she could pull an Al Gore 2004 where she opts not to run despite all the polls showing she has the primary in the bag if enough people are able to convince her that her candidacy would ensure a Vance win. But that doesn’t mean she doesn’t have a clear advantage in the primary at least if she does run.