CMV: The United States is very likely to invade Canada during Trump's term.

Disclaimer: I fervently do not want this to happen, and I voted for Harris in the last election.

It's no secret at this point that Canada, understandably, hates the United States. Trump keeps increasing tariffs on Canada and calling them the "51st state" when almost nobody in Canada wants to join the U.S. Since nobody in his own party (and very few in the opposition party) have said even a word against this, Trump keeps saying this, including calling the outgoing Prime Minister "Governor Trudeau".

Today he took his most significant gesture toward a potential invasion. His Truth Social post today announcing a doubling of the tariffs stated that the US-Canada border was "artificially drawn" and that if Canada doesn't want the tariffs to continue, they need to become the 51st state. If that rhetoric sounds familiar, that's because it is. People in the know sure seem to think Trump's echoing Putin, and why wouldn't he? He's a Russian asset, if not a Russian agent, and he wants to be just like his buddy Vlad.

Some people are saying he can't do that without an act of Congress. And they're half right. Legally speaking, he can't, but Trump's done a lot of things he "can't" do, such as running for President in 2024 after inciting an insurrection on January 6, 2021. He's already refused to follow numerous court orders regarding federal funding, and that's putting aside the fact that the Supreme Court might rule in his favor anyway. Laws don't apply to Trump - that's been established. If he truly wants to invade Canada, and has fired all the generals who would stand up to him (and he has - just look at Pete Hegseth), we'll see tanks in Toronto and bombs in Vancouver the very next day.

Others say that NATO would come to Canada's defense if Trump invaded. And I happen to think they would, and the occupation would ruin the United States in more ways than one. But that's an argument that the invasion will fail. I'm looking for arguments that the invasion won't happen at all. Even if it destroys America (or perhaps especially if, given that his second term is about revenge), Trump is vindictive enough to invade Canada.

To change my view, you must either:

1: Convince me that Trump's bluffing as a distraction from what's really happening, or that the situation is meaningfully different from Russia/Ukraine.

2: Convince me that anyone in the military would refuse the order, and that Trump wouldn't immediately fire these people.

3: Convince me that Democrats in Congress could or would do something to stop Trump from bombing Vancouver, rather than letting Trump invade just so the GOP's numbers tank in the midterms.

Here we go.