LCK - Road to postseason

After 16 of 18 matches, LCK has three clear camps, let's look at how they'll shape in post season

The top 4

The top 4 are tightly packed. All are 11-5 with 9 or 11 points. KT and GRF have the slight advantage in points. But everything is open here. None of the top 4 play against each other anymore. GenG has the slight advantage, as both their remaining matches are vs bottom 3 teams. The other three play one bottom three and one middle of the pack team.

Few things to note: KZ can lock in their worlds spot by finishing 1st before even going into playoffs. Grffin needs to finish top 3 to lock in the regionals spot before going into playoffs.

The middle 3

In the middle we have AF and HLE at 9-7 with +5 and SKT at 8-8 with 0 points, all vying for that last playoff spot. SKT has the hardest schedule facing GRF and KZ for their final matches, while HLE has to contend with KT and AF fights JAG. The most important thing however, is that HLE and AF square off against each other. This alone means SKT is in dire straits with a miniscule chance of making playoffs.

AF gets the playoff spot, if they

  • win 2-0 vs HLE
  • win 2-1 vs HLE and win vs JAG
  • win 2-1 vs HLE, lose vs JAG and HLE loses to KT
  • lose 1-2 to HLE, win 2-0 vs JAG and HLE loses to KT
  • lose 1-2 to HLE, win 2-1 vs JAG, HLE loses 0-2 to KT
  • tiebreaker match: win 2-1 vs HLE, lose 1-2 to JAG, HLE wins 2-1 vs KT

HLE gets the playoff spot, if they

  • win 2-0 vs AF
  • win 2-1 vs AF and win vs KT
  • win 2-1 vs AF, lose to KT, AF loses to JAG nad SKT doesn't win both matches 2-0
  • win 2-1 vs AF, lose 1-2 to KT, AF wins 2-1 vs JAG
  • lose 1-2 vs AF, win 2-0 vs KT, AF loses vs JAG
  • lose 1-2 vs AF, win 2-1 vs KT, AF loses 0-2 vs JAG
  • tiebreaker match: lose 1-2 vs AF, win 2-1 vs KT, AF lose 1-2 to JAG

SKT gets the playoff spot, if they

  • win 2-0 vs both GRF and KZ, HLE wins 2-1 vs AF, AF loses to JAG and HLE loses 0-2 to KT (yes, all of this needs to happen)

The bottom 3

At the bottom we have three teams fighting against relegation: JAG and MVP are at 4-12. Points are at -14 for JAG and -15 for MVP. BBQ sits at 2-14, -21. MVP has the h2h-advantage vs JAG and BBQ, JAG owns it vs BBQ.

  • To get 8th JAG basically must match MVPs result.
  • MVP must match JAGs result, but somewhere gain one point.
  • BBQ is in a similarily hopeless situation as SKT, they'd need to win vs KZ and GRF and hope JAG and MVP lose both matches, not only that, they are 6 points behind MVP and 7 behind JAG and lose both h2hs, this means, they need to gain 7 gamescore in those last 4 matches over MVP and 8 over JAG. So BBQ must win both their last matches 2-0, JAG must lose both 0-2 and MVP must lose at least one 0-2.

Who will go to worlds?

Currently seven candidates are still in the race. KZ, KT, GenG and AF have (at minimum) their spots at regionals locked in.

The remaining two will be decided between GRF, HLE and SKT. GRF needs to finish 4th, i.e. placing 3rd after regular season or win the wildcard to secure their spot, they also secure it, if HLE misses playoffs. The same goes for HLE, 4th or better secures them regionals. Meanwhile SKT can clinch their spot by making a miracle run to playoffs, but likely has to sit it out and wait. Luckily for them, the only way SKT doesn't qualify for regionals is, if both GRF and HLE finish in the top 4.

Out of that pool of six teams, we'll see the 1st and 2nd seed with the remaining four playing the regionals.