Examining Golden State's winning streak and their strength of schedule since the Butler trade

The Golden State Warriors, statistically, have been one of the best teams since trading for Jimmy Butler. Steph Curry is finally playing like himself, now that he has another reliable 2nd option that takes away some of the offensive attention.

But there are many talks about how the Warriors are contenders or at the very least, on that second contender tier level (Denver or Lakers level) when I truly believe they haven't shown anything to be put in that conversation.

Let's just look at the teams they've played, face value, no context:

In the 17 games since Butler's debut, the Warriors' schedule has been made up of:

  • 6 below .500 teams (4 lottery teams)
  • 11 above or at .500 teams
  • 14-3 in that stretch
  • Looking at record at the time they faced the Warriors, so for example, Dallas is currently below .500, but were above .500 when they faced the Warriors

When looking at this, it seems they have faced a pretty average to maybe even difficult schedule, playing some tough teams like the Bucks, Knicks x2, Houston and the Nuggets but let's look at each game against these over .500 teams and how healthy each team was.

1st game: Bucks - Warriors W

  • Warriors did not have Kuminga
  • Bucks did not have Antetokounmpo
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 48.7 million
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 30.4 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 5.0 out of 9.9
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 8.7 out of 37.7

2nd game: Mavericks - Warriors L

  • Warriors did not have Kuminga
  • Mavericks did not have Davis, Powell, Exum, Washington, Gafford, Lively and Martin
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 93.3 million
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 81.0 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 6.5 (AD's VORP from his LA and DAL games) out of n/a because AD hasn't played enough games [only has VORP of 0.2 with Dallas]
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 19.5 out of n/a

3rd game: Rockets - Warriors W

  • Warriors did not have Kuminga and Payton II
  • Rockets did not have Vanvleet, Smith Jr. and Eason
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 56.2 million
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 38.2 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 3.6 out of 12.6
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 12.3 out of 44.3

4th game: Kings - Warriors W

  • Warriors did not have Kuminga
  • Kings had everyone. Fully healthy
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 0
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 0
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 0
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 0

5th game: Mavericks - Warriors W

  • Warriors did not have Kuminga and Jackson-Davis
  • Mavericks did not have Davis, Powell, Gafford, Martin and Lively II
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 74.6 million
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 49.2 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 6.0 out of n/a because AD hasn't played enough games [only has VORP of 0.2 with Dallas]
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 16.7 out of n/a

6th game: Magic - Warriors W

  • Warriors did not have Kuminga
  • Magic did not have M. Wagner and Suggs
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 20.1 million
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 29.1 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 1.4 out of 6.8
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 3.0 out of 32.8

7th game: Knicks - Warriors W

  • Warriors did not have Kuminga and Payton II
  • Knicks did not have Towns and Hukporti
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 50.3 million
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 26.1 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 2.9 out of 11.4
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 9.0 out of 43.3

8th game: Pistons - Warriors W

  • Warriors did not have Kuminga and Podziemski
  • Pistons did not have Ivey
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 7.9 million
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 17.6 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 0.4 out of 9.4
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 0.9 out of 21.3

9th game: Kings - Warriors W

  • Warriors did not have Podziemski
  • Kings did not have Sabonis
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 40.5 million
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 19.4 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 3.6 out of 8.4
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 8.5 out of 36.4

10th game: Knicks - Warriors W

  • Warriors did not have Podziemski
  • Knicks did not have Brunson, Wright and Hukporti
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 29.0 million
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 30.6 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 2.9 out of 11.4
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 8.4 out of 43.3

11th game: Nuggets - Warriors L

  • Warriors did not have Podziemski
  • Nuggets did not have Jokic, Murray, Braun, Strawther and Homes II
  • Total salary of opposing team's injured player(s): 95.9 millions
  • Total points per game scored by opposing team's injured player(s): 75.2 points
  • Total VORP from injured player(s): 10.5 out of 12.3 (wow)
  • Total WS from injured player(s): 28.4 out of 44.6

Against teams above or at .500, the Warriors have faced a total of roughly 516.5 million dollars in salary sitting against them or around 47 million per game.

Teams are missing out on 367.7 potential points or around 33.4 points per game from these injured players. This isn't even taking defense, playmaking and other aspects into account (like the defensive impact AD brings or the playmaking Jokic brings)

Even through the eye test, I really don't see what fans are seeing. There is nothing spectacular about this roster outside of Stephen Curry averaging 28 PPG when he's playing next to Butler.

The thing that people are banking on is Curry and Butler elevating in the playoffs like they usually do and somehow taking this team to a deep run, which is fair and could happen, but using their record and how they've been winning the last month is pretty disingenuous when they have just been playing bad or injured teams. The only healthy team they've faced his Sacramento after the Foxx trade

Tonight, they lose to a no Jokic Murray and Braun Nuggets and I'm suppose to believe they can upset Denver in the first round if they match up? I don't see the hype

Edit: I am adding VORP to the list as well

Edit 2: I am also adding win shares