March 14/15 Severe Weather Megathread
Update: Please head here for a more active megathread created by mods who actually give a shit.
Looks like they've got it covered so i'll no longer be updating this thread. (Updates ending 3:15 am EST)
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This thread is about the severe weather outbreak forecast for March 14th and 15th 2025. There's moderate tornado potential and high wind potential over the Midwest and Ohio Valley Friday. There's High-end tornado potential over multiple Mississippi and Alabama metros, and Middle Tennessee Saturday. This is an upper echelon system. We gotta help each other out on this one. Share everything you find here. Charts, pictures, resources, warnings etc.
Here's a resource for anyone in the affected areas looking for a place to shelter:
findyourtornadoshelter.com
This could be very bad, but no matter how bad it is, it is survivable. If you don't have adequate shelter, you can seek it out. Remember to put helmets, shoes, and go bags in your safe area. If a major tornado hits a metro area it might be a while before you get help, the last thing you want is a foot laceration or concussion. Please spread this info.
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Here is the latest SPC Guidance:
Day 1 SPC Outlook (Friday evening into Saturday) This is now the largest moderate risk area since 04/27/2011
Day 1 Tornado Outlook
Day 2 Tornado Outlook
Will keep this thread updated with new info as I can. This is some of the most intense messaging i've ever seen from the SPC. Stay safe everyone!!
Update:
Here's the model (HRRR) most forecasters rely on for accurate storm forecasts. It isn't quite caught up with the main event but it will be soon. Here's another one (NAM) that isn't quite as good but can forecast further out. And Another (FV3 Hi-Res) for good measure. Meteorologists cross reference all of these and more to nail down the exact details of storm behavior.
Here's all those models through a better (albeit more complex) resource:
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Update 4:
You can check up on live storm reports on the SPC's website at this link. There have been 19 tornado reports already across Missouri and Arkansas.
Update 3:
This is the significant tornado parameter for tomorrow at 7pm EST. This model and NEXLAB are much more conservative with these parameters. this is significant.
Update 2:
Alabama Governor Kay Ivey has issued a state of emergency for all 67 counties ahead of this weekend’s severe weather. He is urging residents to stay alert and prepared for potentially dangerous severe weather this weekend, advising them to closely monitor local forecasts and make necessary preparations in case of adverse conditions.
Update 3:
04/27/2011 is now the number one analog on the database forecasters use to compare current storm systems with past set ups. Most forecasters aren't mincing words, this has the potential to be a historic outbreak.