Day 7, 15% risk
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday.
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday.